Food System Research Fund

Statement of Work

Submission deadline: June 30, 2021
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Introduction/Background:

The current global levels of animal product consumption are associated with numerous negative outcomes, including poor farmed animal welfare and negative environmental impacts. Compounding this, rapid population growth combined with increasing wealth has led to substantial acceleration in animal-based food production and consumption. A significantly different path forward for our food system would be to heavily use plant-based alternatives (PBA’s) instead of animal-based products. However, some critical questions remain regarding these alternatives. 

Given this, The Food System Research Fund seeks completion of the following project:

Project Title: 

Relationship between Price and Scale of Plant-Based Alternatives (PBA), and Factors Limiting Production assuming Large-Scale Demand  

Purpose: 

The purpose of this project is two-fold: 1) to better understand what is the lowest possible cost of PBA, given current technologies and ingredients being used, and 2) , what scale can be achieved under reasonable assumptions, and what are the constraints to producing at very large-scale assuming sufficient demand

Aims: 

  • To better understand what drives the costs of producing PBA, 

  • What kind of cost reductions are feasible in the next 10 years 

  • What kind of innovations or input-price reductions might be needed to generate a more competitive price for PBA 

  • At what scale may these PBA be produced given business as usual, 

  • What inputs or other factors may limit large scale future production of PBA.  

Process/Scope: 

Provide insights in the form of a model for Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) for companies producing PBA. The COGS model should provide a breakdown of the direct costs that companies make for producing the PBA’s they sell. This COGS model should include capital costs, operation, labor, material (inc. electricity, heat, ingredients), maintenance, and production costs etc., and output the costs of producing 1 kg of PBAs. A sensitivity analysis should also be conducted on the model.

Apply generally accepted assumptions to cost scaling for process industries, and analyze cost trends in components, in order to make informed extrapolations about costs at scale. Further examine cost reductions at a larger scale with a sensitivity analysis. Clearly state and discuss any scale-up challenges in order to meet some significant displacement of conventional animal products e.g., 30 metric megaton/y (i.e., 1 billion people consuming 30 kg/y each). State the extent to which the scale-up of PBA is contingent on the concomitant scale-up of certain products and/or other factors, and if it is, provide the required scale-up projections in order to produce commoditized starting materials and process them into an array of PBAs.  Importantly, industry-wide implications of growing scale of PBA need to be accounted for, including, but not limited to, availability of supplies and equipment and a share of global supply of those needed for large scale PBA production.

As PBA are still in development, there will be a degree of uncertainty regarding the results. All the assumptions made in calculations and modeling need to be explicitly stated and justified.  The predictions should include ranges and uncertainties as well as scenario analysis with associated probabilities for each scenario. 

Timeline, Deliverables, and Expected Outcomes: 

By December 31, 2022 develop and publish white paper addressing the above. 

We require that grantees check in with FSRF every 4 months to give a basic report on project progress, assess conceptual soundness, and confirm that the project is on track for completion on time.

Any significant changes in how the project is conducted, including changes in researchers, timeline, research focus, or budget must have prior written FSRF approval or further funding of the grant may be withheld, and granted funds may be required to be returned. 

If the deliverables for which this grant has been made are not completed by the agreed upon date, and if no extension of that date has been agreed to in writing and in advance by FSRF (any reasonable request for an extension of the deliverables date will not be rejected), then all grant funding is subject to be returned by request of FSRF.  

Grantee must agree that the project methodology will be pre-registered on an independent public registry such as the Open Science Framework. Preregistration must include all details of the proposed study and how any analysis will be conducted.  The preregistered analyses must then be referenced in the final report including if a different or additional analysis method was used, and why.

Grantees agrees to make all research results, methods, procedures, computer code, data (or if data is licensed and not shareable, then replication files that would allow replication of results for someone who acquires the data license), and other materials accessible to the public to see, evaluate, and use for further research, by placing the materials and complete descriptions of methods on a public repository such as the Open Science Framework under a Creative Commons (CC0 or CC-BY) license. These materials and descriptions should include enough detail to allow replication of results.

We require that the grantee cannot subgrant or pass on granted funds to any other organization, and must spend the funds as designated in the approved grant proposal unless agreed to in writing by HAAF.

Grantee must maintain records establishing that the funds were used for the purposes agreed upon in this agreement.

To Apply:

By June 30, 2021, submit to galinah at foodsysteminnovations.com the following materials:

  • A detailed proposal, including a minimum of 2-page description of methodology of the approach you propose to take on conducting this research. 

  • A detailed project timeline.

  • A full list of researchers that will be involved, their CVs, and description of any relevant prior research output.  Please indicate one person as a corresponding PI.

  • A detailed budget. See our indirect/overhead cost policies here.

  • Information about the organization that will be receiving the grant (if any): country of domicile, non-profit status, etc.