Results Summary: In the U.S., products that cause most animal suffering are eggs and chicken, while most lives taken are due to fish consumption. The top products in these categories are scrambled eggs and omelets, fish filets, and chicken shreds, grounds, breasts, and fillets. These products are important to target with high-quality plant-based alternatives.

Objective: In recent years we have seen a rapid increase in the availability of plant-based alternatives to meat, egg, and dairy products. People may choose to switch to these products for a variety of reasons, including health, environment, and animal suffering. This study, conducted by Faunalytics provides information on how much animal suffering and how many animal lives are behind main animal-based products consumed in the U.S. If your goal is to reduce animal suffering, either as an entrepreneur or as an advocate or even just in your personal choices, this research gives you a ranking of products that are the most important to remove from the food system or replace with plant-based alternatives.

Results Summary: The volume of plant-based milk consumed has increased over time, but not enough to fully explain the observed decline in cow’s milk consumption. Cow’s milk sales are relatively insensitive to changes in prices of plant-based milks while plant-based milk sales respond to changes in prices of lower-fat cow’s milks more than higher-fat cow’s milks. We cannot confidently attribute all of this potential change in cow’s milk demand to consumption of plant-based milk products.

Abstract: Some advocates hypothesize that the increasing abundance of plant-based milks, butters and other dairy products has exerted significant pressure on the dairy industry, while some in the industry suggest otherwise. Focusing on milk to test this hypothesis, we consider three lines of evidence: (1) whether sales of plant-based alternatives are sufficient to replace declining dairy sales, (2) whether cross-price elasticities indicate substitution, and (3) whether the own-price elasticity of dairy products has increased over time, again suggesting possible substitution. Our methods will quantitatively synthesize data on sales volumes and elasticities, and make new, dynamic estimates of elasticities of dairy milk. The research would elucidate the role of alternatives in the dairy industry and, of equal importance, provide a real-world case study to broadly understand the impact of plant-based alternatives. The work would produce a novel data set and aim for peer-reviewed publication. The final report is available here and project data are available here.

Abstract: The proposed project plans to examine the impact of consumer learning from various channels (media coverage, advertising, and product variety expansion) on the growing plant-based milk consumption. We will formulate a structural random coefficient discrete choice model with a Bayesian learning process in the general milk market. We will assess how the learning process shifts consumer preferences, estimate and compare the value of information from different channels in increasing demand, and assess the competition between plant-based milk and fluid milk products. We will further simulate how demand for plant-based milk will be affected under different scenarios by changing levels of consumer learning from three channels. Findings from this proposed project will help manufacturers select their communication channels carefully and prioritize their spending in channels that can maximize their profits. A review of our results can be seen here.

Abstract: We will project how the number of US cattle would change with a decrease in plant-based burger prices. This is an important question for economic, political, environmental and animal welfare reasons. Recent research (Loo, Caputo, Lusk 2020) indicates plant-based beef is a substitute for conventional beef for some shoppers. Ongoing survey work from Tonsor & Lusk further supports this, providing data over time on willingness to pay for the two products. We will develop a review of cross- elasticities from this and other research, and use the values in a simple economic model we develop to estimate cattle supply. We will publish the research as a working paper with a non-technical summary, and—provided the results are interesting—write and submit a research paper.

Abstract: The plant-based meat industry sells itself as a replacement for meat. At scale, this could have important climate impacts, since livestock is responsible for about 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The tendency for consumers to substitute one for the other, however, is unknown. I have partnered with a large national supermarket chain who will share panel data from tens of thousands of customer purchases carefully sampled from millions of repeat customers. We will use the staggered rollout of plant-based meat by store region, as well as the staggered adoption of plant-based meats to the grocery basket of individual shoppers to identify how the consumption of meat changed. In our main specification, we will use a large pool of potential covariates, control consumers, and meat purchases before adoption of plant-based meat to estimate meat purchases in an after-adoption period. Actual meat purchases will be compared to these simulations to test the tradeoff.

Abstract: Plant based alternative proteins face a variety of challenges in terms of its scalability. Based on our preliminary research and field expertise, we believe the most important factors affecting scalability are direct ingredients, capital costs associated with the manufacturing equipment, labor costs, energy and water usage. To study each component in terms of its contribution to COGS and its potential scalability, we will conduct a comprehensive research agenda including unique and novel data collection methods, econometric estimation and qualitative analysis of vital soft information via consulting industry experts. There are a variety of plant based alternatives (PBAs) that are commercially available including meat substitutes, dairy substitutes, egg substitutes etc. Each group of PBAs display different production techniques and challenges to scalability. Due to limitations of publicly available micro data, we limit our work to plant based alternative meat products only.

Abstract: The consumption of animal products is influenced by multiple factors, and reducing it can be approached by increasing the cost of production, reducing demand, and/or increasing demand elasticity by offering quality alternatives. This study will employ literature review and desk research methodology to investigate the factors affecting the cost of production of various animal products in the United States and other countries, emphasizing areas with significant potential impact for animals. The key goal is to identify current and potential future vulnerabilities in the production process. Additionally, the report will outline factors that currently strengthen the supply chain or reduce costs, and opposing factors that may reduce costs or make production more resilient in the future. We will produce a lay-friendly research report describing the findings and recommendations for animal advocates.

Abstract: China is the world’s largest egg producer and raised nearly 2.9 billion laying hens in 2018. Unfortunately, 90% of those hens are kept in battery cages. Although animal welfare organisations have been campaigning the egg industry to transition to cage-free production, the Chinese egg industry is not committed to the conversion. Identifying and engaging with key stakeholders is a major barrier to driving positive and effective change in the country. Global Food Partners completed a detailed stakeholder map. You can read our report here.

Results Summary: Chinese respondents generally support animal welfare, half are open to reducing meat consumption and donating to animal welfare organizations. They mostly understand that animal farming contributes to disease outbreaks but very few are aware of the role of wet markets.

Abstract: This project surveys Chinese beliefs about Covid-19s links with animal agriculture, drawing on the methodology of a recent survey of US respondents (Beggs and Anderson, 2020). The survey supports efforts to improve farmed animal welfare in China by establishing a knowledge base about the understanding of Covid-19s animal origins and attitudes towards pro-animal policy and consumption changes in China. Surveys of attitudes towards farmed animal welfare in China have been done previously (You et al., 2014), but the pandemic has likely shifted attitudes towards animal agriculture (Xinhua, 2020). The US survey found the public there largely oblivious about Covid-19s links to animals. The China survey will provide comparable data, our hypothesis being that the Chinese public is more informed about Covid-19s animal origins and more supportive of pro-animal changes. The survey to be pre-registered on OSF will result in an open access data set and executive summary for wide dissemination.

Key Findings:

1. Most Chinese respondents (around 50-60%) demonstrated a basic understanding of the animal origins of COVID-19.

2. However, only 2% of Chinese respondents mentioned the wet market conditions that allowed the virus to jump from species to species, suggesting an incomplete understanding of its origins.

3. There is strong support for legislation that would protect both animals and human health.

4. Many Chinese respondents reported intentions to reduce their meat consumption (49%) and donate to animal charities (40%), suggesting that animal product consumption may change significantly because of COVID-19, at least among the younger, urban Chinese population who made up this sample.

5. The vast majority of respondents (81%) believed that animal shelters and sanctuaries should be considered essential services.

6. Very few Chinese respondents were aware of the threats to life faced by animals used in research (10.6%) or those who depend on tourists for food (18.8%).

7. The vast majority of Chinese respondents were aware that cats and dogs are not a major reason for the spread of COVID-19 (94.6%), and that disease outbreaks have been caused by farmed animals before (94.1%).

The full report is available here and analysis is available here.

Background: This study investigated potential opportunities or challenges for plant-based meat in the Chinese market. A quantitative framework was applied to determine the current level of familiarity and experience with plant-based meat among Chinese consumers, the proportion of consumers who would try or purchase plant-based meat, which demographics within China are most likely to buy plant-based meat and which attitudes are important in driving the purchase intent of plant-based meat. The study can be found here.

Key Findings:

• Almost 40% of respondents indicated that they were actively reducing meat consumption

• Around 60% of Chinese consumers had tried modern plant-based meat products, and almost half of these consumers, mostly omnivores, said that they would eat it again

• Generally, Chinese consumers were more likely to buy plant-based meat if they saw it as healthy, safe, having a good mouthfeel, cool/ trendy and animal-friendly.

Results Summary: Media coverage of PBAs offered by Starbucks and KFC in China listed health and safety of PBAs, as well as environmental benefits as their advantage, but did not discuss animal welfare. There was positive coverage of taste and texture. Potential for lower prices and the novelty factor in initial demand were also mentioned.

Abstract: This research explores consumer acceptance of plant-based alternatives (PBAs) through an analysis of social and state media responses to KFC and Starbucks’ launch of PBA menu items in China in April 2020. Discourse analysis is frequently undertaken as a means to understand public attitudes, including in relation to alternative proteins (Goodwin and Shoulders 2013). However, no studies of this nature have been undertaken in a Chinese context. Consumer attitudes towards alternative proteins vary across cultures (Bryant, et al. 2019). PBAs in China have been the topic of commentary in English language media, but there is not a strong body of research to support this conjecture. Starbucks and KFC’s PBA launches used different marketing techniques, making them interesting to contrast. Our hypothesis is that pundits in English language media may overemphasize acceptance levels and overestimate the potential success of the PBA market in China. The study will be pre-registered on OSF.

The final report is available here and the project data are available here.

Results Summary: The potential market for alternative proteins in China is about 35% of urban consumers. These consumers are slightly older, have higher incomes, and are more likely to buy meat products in specialty stores over wet markets or supermarkets. tofu alternatives can capture 25% of the market, new-generation plant-based alternatives 21%, and cultured pork 11%. The use of food identity labels is an effective tool in reducing demand for products made from animal-based proteins in this market.

Abstract: China, with an emerging consumer base of 1.4 billion people, presents a significant market opportunity for new generation plant-based alternative foods. Given a lack of information on consumer preferences for these products in China, there is a critical need to understand drivers of Chinese consumer acceptance relative to traditional meat and dairy products. Relying on over one decade of research experience studying the Chinese consumer, I will develop and conduct a large scale, national consumer survey (n=2,000+) to assess preferences for farm animal welfare and demand for new generation plant-based alternative proteins in China. My proposed work will capture the effects that knowledge and information have on consumer preferences and demand for plant-based alternative proteins utilizing cutting-edge methods in food preference research. Results from this research study will help design food marketing strategies and inform food policies on plant-based food alternatives in China. The executive summary is available here. The GitHub page containing the data and code used in the paper is available here.

Abstract: Southeast Asia has the world’s second largest population of farmed animals, yet farm animal welfare in PLMICs in this region is highly neglected. Countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia barely have welfare work in progress.

Despite global meat production being forecasted to increase, there is a lack of clarity on the strategic efforts to improve welfare of farmed animals and to slow down growth in the consumption of animal products. In order to figure out which actions should be prioritised, we need to know more about what is the current state — including the distribution and types of animals, legislations that are in place, cultural factors and key stakeholders. Our goal is to compile a report identifying and mapping the parameters that impact the existing practices of animal farming in this region. This report can be used as a resource in developing strategies that could encourage and support more effective movement coordination in Southeast Asia.

Abstract: Using online, nationally representative surveys, this study primarily assessed the potential for plant-based meat (PBM) adoption in Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria. While familiarity was moderate, acceptance was high: 80% of Kenyans, 76% of Nigerians, and 62% of Egyptians reported they were highly likely to try PBM. Prior familiarity and being motivated to purchase for health and food security reasons were statistically significant predictors of PBM purchase intention in all countries. Nutrition, taste, and cost were considered the most important PBM product characteristics. PB chicken, beef, and fish, especially in the form of burgers, were considered the most desirable product types. Longer term adoption of other alternatives to conventional meat, including cultivated meat (CM) and hybrid products, also appear to be viable market-based solutions. CM and hybrid products were less familiar and accepted than PBM: 56% of Kenyans, 59% of Nigerians, and 42% of Egyptians reported they were very or extremely likely to try CM. In a future scenario where PBM, CM, and conventional meat were all widely available and had a similar taste and price, participants anticipated that alternatives to conventional meat could make up about ½ the total share of meat consumption in Egypt, ⅔ in Nigeria, and ¾ in Kenya. The findings from this study suggest that PBM in the near term, and CM in the longer term, could be viable market-based solutions to reduce the food security, public health, environmental, and animal welfare concerns associated with higher meat consumption and production. The final report can be found here. Research materials are posted on Open Science Framework here.

Abstract: This study addresses the RFP “identifying paths to reducing growth in animal product consumption in PLMICs”. Specifically, we assessed retrospective behavior to determine the conditions under which first trials of plant-based meat occur. The mixed-method survey study included Generation Z and Millennial (ages 15-39) Chinese consumers’ previous behavior and experiences. Questions for those who have already tried plant-based meat focused on understanding what led to their trials, their experiences, and outcomes, such as repeat trials or adoption. For those who had not yet tried plant-based meat, questions focused on their lack of trial and their primary motivations and barriers. Data analysis includes a combination of descriptive statistics and thematic analyses of open-ended response data. Knowledge gained from this study provides further understanding of the best marketing strategies to promote consumption of plant-based alternatives. The final report can be found here. All study materials are available on Open Science Framework here.

Abstract: Our research will test the effectiveness of an informational intervention based on water usage information of different kinds of meat. Intervention studies targeting meat consumption typically contain information about the associated emissions and animal welfare concern of meat production, we argue that information regarding water usage might be more effective and emotionally salient, especially in countries where drought and water shortages are common occurrences. Our study will compare the effectiveness of these different informational intervention strategy, and seek to explain why certain strategy works better on some people but not others. Participants will be randomized into one of four intervention strategy conditions (animal welfare, climate change, water usage, control condition) and read a stimuli and complete a questionnaire. We will preregister our design, analysis, predictions, and will make our data public, and publish our findings in a scientific journal.

Results Summary: "Good For Us" documentary viewing increased self-reported intentions and pledges to reduce meat consumption, consistent with the literature. However, it did not affect self-reported or researchers-measured actual consumption. These findings suggest that past studies of similar interventions may have overestimated effects due to methodological biases. Novel intervention strategies may be needed to meaningfully shift dietary consumption away from meat and animal products.

Abstract: Educational interventions to reduce meat and animal product consumption have become a popular advocacy strategy. Our recent meta-analysis of 100 such interventions indicated that they show promising effect sizes, and we identified key psychological components that may contribute to successful intervention design. However, we also found that methodological rigor was lacking in most existing studies. To inform effective, evidence-based decisions about educational interventions, we will conduct a 2-week randomized controlled trial of a 20-minute documentary, Good For Us, whose content reflects best practices in effective intervention design and that is being actively disseminated by The Humane League. The study will adhere to the highest standards of preregistration, study design, and statistical analysis, and will result in at least two open-access journal articles, a summary of results and recommendations for relevant nonprofits, and a public dataset, materials, and code.

Key Findings: The documentary did not decrease meat and animal product compared to the control video when potential social desirability bias was minimized (Study 1: -0.33 oz/week; 95% CI: [-6.12, 5.46]; p=0.91; Study 3: -2.46 oz/week; 95% CI: [-8.78, 3.85]; p=0.43). The documentary also did not affect reported meat and animal-product consumption among participants whose demographics suggested they might be more receptive to the intervention (Study 3). However, the documentary did substantially increase the percentage of participants who immediately intended to reduce consumption, consistent with past studies (Study 2) and prompted a majority of viewers to pledge to reduce or eliminate their consumption of at least one meat or animal product (Study 3). These findings suggest that past studies of similar interventions may have overestimated effects due to methodological biases. Novel intervention strategies may be needed to meaningfully shift dietary consumption away from meat and animal products. The Executive Summary can be found here. The entire paper can be found here. The public dataset and code can be found here. Trial registration: Study 1: https://osf.io/m3d2y/; Study 2: https://osf.io/etpvf/; Study 3: https://osf.io/n52yd/.

Abstract: Most studies on meat-reduction messaging have only used a small set of messages with idiosyncratic methodology, making it difficult to have any clear sense of what works best. We propose to advance the literature with a large-scale online experiment in which participants are randomized into many different possible advocacy presentations made up of content modules (e.g., animal suffering, environment, health), as well as randomizing whether the participant is “captive” or “free” to skip modules they do not want to see. Randomization will also occur within each module (e.g., animal suffering with graphic versus non-graphic content). Participants can then make a real purchase for a plant-based item or a meat-based item and choose whether they will sign a petition. The research paper from this study will provide the first rigorous comparison between messaging strategies, including across subpopulations (e.g., men over 50).

Abstract: One of the biggest hurdles to getting lawmakers to support or propose welfare legislation is their fear of negative public reaction and its impact on their political careers. We intend to identify issues with the most public support, particularly bipartisan support, in key states. During the design phase of this work, we will determine key issues and the ten most tractable states to poll in close consultation with advocates who do legislative work. We will then conduct polls to gauge support for each of the potential legislative avenues, using a representative sample of 1,068 participants from each of ten different U.S. states. We will segment results by key demographics and communicate them via a research report published to Faunalytics’ website. In short, this study will provide both strategic and tactical support to advocates who work through legislative channels to produce a large impact for animals.

Abstract: This research sought to highlight certain key challenges prevailing in South Africa’s food system with a view to providing recommendations for improvement. It was produced using literature review, and conducting key informant interviews and a public survey as research methods. Particular barriers were identified relating to the country’s overreliance on animal-based protein and products (animal sourced foods or ASFs) and in advocating for a shift towards alternatives to ASFs, more specifically plant-based alternatives and cellular-based alternatives (Alternatives). Identified Key Issues were discussed, and Strategic Priority Areas were highlighted. Fifteen Recommend Interventions and sub-interventions were provided as to how law and policy can be used as a lever to transition the country away from intensive animal agriculture and ASFs towards Alternatives.

Links to the completed research:

• White Paper

• Working Paper

• OSF Research

Abstract: This research aims at identifying locations, names, companies, investors and farming methods of salmon farms in China, and examines the impacts on ecosystems these farms have. In addition, policy recommendations would be given to relevant departments in Chinese governmental agencies. The deliverables include a research paper published, at least one media article and one report produced.

Results Summary: Municipal programs and policies specifically focused on promoting plant-based eating are uncommon, partly due to perceived socio-cultural and institutional/structural barriers, such as likelihood of push-back from powerful interest groups, concerns over equity and threatening others’ autonomy, and lack of political will. Incentives and education about plant-based choices were perceived as more feasible than other interventions such as taxes on animal products. Any interventions that promote plant-based eating also have to address diversity, equity, and inclusion concerns.

Abstract: Consumption of animal products, particularly beef, is a key driver of biodiversity losses globally, primarily due to land conversion. Approximately 70% of the world’s deforestation is a result of land clearing for animal feed. Meat consumption also contributes significantly to climate emissions, soil erosion, surface and groundwater contamination, and human-wildlife conflict, which results in widespread killings of native wildlife. In the American West, for example, in 2016, more than 76,000 coyotes were killed by USDA Wildlife Services, primarily to reduce depredation on livestock. According to the 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), shifting the public towards plant-based diets by 2050 could free up several million square kilometers of land and reduce global CO2 emissions by up to eight billion tons per year.

Many animal advocacy organizations are interested in how to both encourage meat, dairy, and egg reduction and promote plant-based options through government policies and legislation. Initiatives originating in municipal sustainability offices present one of the most fruitful avenues, yet little is known about the most appropriate and effective strategies to pursue such initiatives. An incentivized survey sent to pre-identified staff of sustainability offices in mid-sized U.S. counties and cities will help collect this valuable information. This research will result in a data set, open-access report, and potentially a peer-reviewed journal article. Findings will give advocates a clearer sense of the interventions likely to be well received by sustainability offices and their key stakeholders. Specifically for Mercy For Animals, this research will allow our lobbyists to identify opportunities for this work and better tailor their messaging to relevant policymakers.

Key Findings: Through a survey of staff in municipal sustainability offices and other municipal organizations across the United States, we examined the extent to which municipalities currently promote plant-based eating and other sustainable food practices, and the opportunities and barriers they perceive to doing so. We found that while many municipalities engage with sustainable food practices more broadly, engagement in programs and policies specifically focused on promoting plant-based eating was uncommon. Furthermore, there was hesitation to engage with plant-based food choices due to perceived socio-cultural and institutional/structural barriers, such as likelihood of push-back from powerful interest groups, concerns over equity and threatening others’ autonomy, and lack of political will. We also found that some interventions, such as incentives and education about plant-based choices, were perceived as more feasible than others (e.g., taxes on animal products). Further, respondents highlighted the need for interventions that promote plant-based eating while addressing diversity, equity, and inclusion concerns . Our findings suggest that municipalities are underutilized sources of influence to promote plant-based eating; however, outreach and support to municipalities to overcome real and perceived barriers is needed. A report titled “Exploring Elements of Food Policy Interventions: Findings from Nationwide Survey Research on Municipal Stakeholders“ is available here.

Abstract: We aim to understand better how livestock farmers make the decision to phase out their livestock production. We will initially address two contrasting species, beef cattle and poultry, because of the different challenges that their extensive and intensive production methods, respectively, pose to development of alternatives. Our initial aim is to focus on conventional arable crops and silvo-arable production to replace beef, and intensive high value indoor vegetable production to replace poultry. Our two test countries are chosen to test a proof of the concept that such an organisation is feasible and beneficial to farmers. The two species selected are particularly contentious, beef because of their responsibility for conversion of indigenous forest into pastureland and poultry because of their use of feed that could otherwise be used directly for human consumption. This part of the project will deliver survey results for research papers on farmers' intentions.

Abstract: Choice-architecture interventions, such as changing food portion sizes, can effectively shape dietary choices [1], but few studies have specifically assessed the effectiveness of reducing animal protein (AP) portion sizes [2-3]. We will assess whether such interventions (halving AP portions or mixing AP with plant-based ingredients) can effectively reduce AP consumption in a university cafeteria without reducing patron satisfaction. Concerns about satisfaction have been substantial barriers to organizations’ adopting such interventions, yet our pilot studies suggest portion-size reductions need not reduce satisfaction. If we find the intervention is effective, this project will pave the way for larger studies of this intervention through our existing multi-university research collaboration “Menus of Change” [4].

Abstract: Our recent FSRF-funded work investigated a simple, scalable intervention in which we reduced the size of spoons used to serve meat and animal products (MAP) in a university cafeteria. That study suggested preliminarily that the intervention may decrease MAP consumption by ~18% (95% CI: [-1%, 36%]) without reducing patron satisfaction. However, given sample size limitations (the number of days on which data were collected), we cannot yet be confident intervention truly is effective, nor confident of its effect size, which would inform estimates of cost-effectiveness in terms of the number of animals saved. The proposed work will serve as a bridge between these preliminary findings and actionable recommendations about dissemination (both as policy at Stanford, and also via the lab’s existing collaborations with Menus for Change, Better Food Foundation, and the dining halls at Harvard University). The deliverables will be: an open-access dataset and code, a white paper that we expect to publish in a peer-reviewed journal, and an executive summary.

Abstract: Concerns have recently grown about the environmental sustainability of meat-based pet foods. Okin (2017), for example, demonstrated that 25-30% of the environmental impacts of animal agriculture in the US are due to pet food. Su and Martens (2018), and Martens et al. (2019) demonstrated ecological ‘paw prints’ comparable to human dietary ‘ecological footprints’. The proportion of ‘food’ animals also used in pet food is also very significant. However, no studies yet exist, quantifying the benefits that partial or complete transitions to alternate pet foods, such as those based on plant or yeast-based proteins, could confer. Recent studies have demonstrated both dogs and cats can be healthy on nutritionally-sound plant-based diets (Wakefield et al. 2006, Brown et al. 2009, Dodd et al. 2021, Knight et al. 2022a, Knight 2022b). Accordingly, this study would explore the relative environmental sustainability of meat- and plant-based pet foods.

Using ‘equivalent plant energy’ (EPE) calculations, along with EPE requirements of humans, the number of additional humans who could be fed annually using energy saved by plant-based pet foods would be calculated. The number of ‘food’ animals whose lives would be spared annually would also be calculated, and life cycle analysis would be used to determine the relative environmental impacts (e.g. land, water, fossil fuel, phosphate and biocide uses). For each, the animal- and plant-based dietary components would be summed proportionately, to determine the total greenhouse gasses (GHGs) produced.

This study would quantify the relative environmental sustainability of meat-based and alternate pet foods, such as those based on plant or yeast proteins. Outputs would include a scientific publication, YouTube video, presentations and media interviews. This research will add to existing research on the health and wellbeing of pets maintained on plant-based or other alternate diets.

Abstract: Assessed the relative consumption of livestock animals within the diets of dogs, cats and people, this study examined their dietary energy needs within the US in 2020, and globally in 2018. Also studied were US pet food ingredients, and environmental sustainability indicators for plant- and animal-based foods consumed globally. Relative consumptions of average livestock animals were: US: dogs– 17.7%, cats– 2.3%, humans– 80.0%; and globally: dogs– 7.7%, cats– 1.2%, humans– 91.1%. Full transition to nutritionally-sound vegan diets would spare from slaughter the following numbers of terrestrial livestock animals annually (billions): US: dogs– 1.7, cats– 0.2, humans– 7.8, and globally: dogs– 6.0, cats– 0.9, humans– 71.3, as well as billions of aquatic animals in all dietary groups. Very large impact reductions were also associated with land and water use, emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), acidifying and eutrophifying gases, and biocide use, in all dietary groups. If implemented globally, nutritionally-sound vegan diets would free up land larger than the following nations: dogs–Saudi Arabia or Mexico, cats–Japan or Germany, humans–Russia–the world’s largest country–combined with India. Such diets would save freshwater volumes greater than all renewable freshwater in the following nations: dogs–Denmark, cats–Jordan, humans–Cuba. Such diets would reduce GHGs by amounts greater than all GHG emissions from following nations: dogs–South Africa or the UK, cats–Israel or New Zealand, humans–India or the entire EU. The numbers of additional people who could be fed using food energy savings associated with vegan diets exceeded the 2018 human populations of the following nations: dogs–the entire European Union, cats–France or the UK, humans–every single nation or collective region on Earth, as defined by the World Bank. All of these estimates are conservative.

Pet Food Sustainability Graphic

Published study: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291791

Abstract: Plant-based alternative (PBA) products have been gaining popularity and shelfspace in supermarkets across the globe. Unlike almost fully commoditized conventional animal-based products, the PBA market operates as a standard differentiated products market and the variety of PBA products is increasing substantially. In this environment, consumers seek more information about the quality of PBA products, whereas producers and policy makers want to identify bottlenecks to consumer adoption. Yet, we do not have a systematic way to trace the input of the consumers, or quantify how it affects product success. To address this knowledge gap, we propose (i) establishing a method to develop a quantifiable, multi-attribute, product-level score for plant-based products, (ii) creating a database for all industry stakeholders to learn from and build on, and (iii) analyze the relationship between product attributes and commercial success. To do so, we will quantify perceived product attributes such as taste, texture, aroma, appearance, convenience, among others, for commercially sold PBA products using natural language processing of textual online consumer reviews across a variety of major retailers. Next, we will use these numerical attributes, along with nutritional and pricing data, to predict the commercial success of products by conducting an econometric analysis.

Abstract: We study whether new plant-based meat and dairy alternatives and changing policies toward animal welfare affect or can be explained by changing consumer attitudes. We document trends in grocery purchases for different segments of the U.S. population and investigate potential drivers of changing interest in meat, eggs, dairy, and plant-based substitutes in the National Consumer Panel. We initially find little substitution for most consumers. Instead it seems as though the increase in consumption of plant-based alternatives is mainly driven by a small fraction of the population. There is some evidence, however, that this subset of the population is slowly but steadily growing. We plan to complement these descriptive trends with an analysis of how consumption responds to the arrival of novel plant-based substitutes in the grocery store and moving between regions with different consumption patterns. Furthermore, we intend to estimate a learning model to understand how consumers' beliefs respond to initial purchases of plant-based alternatives.

We aim to produce a published paper in a respected economics journal; we expect to post a working paper well before that.

Abstract: For animal advocacy campaigns to be successful, it is often necessary to seek common ground with those whom we seek to persuade. This is especially true with legislative and political advocacy. Given the divisive political climate in the United States, it is crucial to frame our issues in terms that will appeal to lawmakers from both major political parties.

As recent polling by Pew Research demonstrates, framing animal protection issues in terms of their impact on climate change could be effective with Democrats, but this common approach is likely to fail with Republicans. In contrast, the economy is considered a key issue by 79% of voters overall, regardless of political party. For this reason, we plan to use available data to estimate the number of U.S. jobs that could be created by increasing focus on the U.S. alternative protein industry.

We will estimate the number of jobs created and lost in two scenarios: a “meat-based future” and a “plant-based future.” In the first we will create a scenario of realistically increased supply and demand for animal products, then estimating the number of jobs based on this projected breakdown of the animal-based and plant-based agriculture and production sectors. The second scenario assumes a sizable shift in global diets toward plant-based foods, estimating the number of jobs based on this projected breakdown of the animal-based and plant-based agriculture and production sectors. We will deliver a final white paper and an executive summary to be published online.

Abstract: Environmental concerns are posing risks to existing practices followed in agriculture. With increasing temperature variations, physical risks of environmental disasters and deteriorating agricultural yield, sustainable agriculture policy appears to be the only promising solution to address food security with a promise of environmental balance. However, the transition path towards sustainable agriculture requires long term planning with major investments towards new technologies. These investments require funding from financial institutions and government. However, the credit access remains moderate in the initial years of transition due to lack of productivity and greater investment requirements. This project is aimed at analyzing the role of financial inter-mediation in facilitating the transition process. More specifically, the project aims to develop a micro-foundation analytical model which will help businesses to plan their path towards sustainable agriculture practices in medium and long term. The model will provide different alternative transition paths scenario analysis with an emphasis on the availability of financing from financial institutions and government.

Results Summary: Undergraduate students believe that it is important to eat healthy and would like to shift to healthier diets. They also show good understanding of what healthy diets mean. Cost and access to healthy options is a problem, however, especially for lower income students. Therefore, improving access to and lowering costs of healthy options, such as fresh produce, is more important than educating students on benefits of healthy diets.

Abstract: This paper studies differences in the barriers to healthful food choices across different socioeconomic characteristics. The analysis is based on the interviews of undergraduate students conducted by their peers at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC). The results show that the most important barriers to healthy eating are economic in nature and that they vary with family income and across demographic groups. Our findings suggest that improving access to and lowering costs of healthy options, such as fresh produce, is more important than educating students on benefits of healthy diets. The draft of the paper is available here.

Abstract: This project will investigate the role of bank lending in U.S. farms' resilience to climate change-related disasters. The research hypothesis is two-fold: 1) credit access; 2) climate resilience. More specifically, banks tend to lend less to farms in U.S. counties that are more exposed to climate risks and disasters. Second, after a climate-related disaster, farms in U.S. counties with more bank lending recover faster than counties with less bank financing, as they can better adapt to climate change and rebuild after disasters. To test the hypothesis, researchers will use a combination of exploratory data analysis and econometric estimation, employing county-level and product-level data at annual frequency. The data sources include the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), and the USDA.

Abstract: We will project how changes in plant-based meat market share in the US and world would affect world crop prices and how that would affect crop production in different regions. We will use a static economic model, incorporating data on price elasticities and production costs, to model changes in production under several scenarios.

Abstract: Environmental concerns are posing risks to existing practices followed in agriculture. With increasing temperature variations, physical risks of environmental disasters and deteriorating agricultural yield, sustainable agriculture policy appears to be the only promising solution to address food security with a promise of environmental balance. However, the transition path towards sustainable agriculture requires long term planning with major investments towards new technologies. These investments require funding from financial institutions and government. However, the credit access remains moderate in the initial years of transition due to lack of productivity and greater investment requirements. This project is aimed at analyzing the role of financial inter-mediation in facilitating the transition process. More specifically, the project aims to develop a micro-foundation analytical model which will help businesses to plan their path towards sustainable agriculture practices in medium and long term. The model will provide different alternative transition paths scenario analysis with an emphasis on the availability of financing from financial institutions and government.

Abstract: This survey will address the most business-relevant questions that producers may have about in-ovo egg sexing technology:

1) How aware are American consumers of male chick culling?

2) What do American consumers think about male chick culling?

3) What do American consumers think about in-ovo egg sexing technology?

4) Who might the early adopters be?

5) How much of a price premium are early adopters willing to pay?

6) What should we call eggs made with this technology?